"But the rich are leaving NY state!"

[Darth Stateworker]

* edited to show entire dataset for all income ranges.

This is a common item that comes up. Conservative readers will say high taxes are causing the rich to leave the state in droves. Let's see what the facts are:

NYAGI Class	1999 Taxpayers	2007 Taxpayers	# Change	% Change
Less than $5,000	135,277	122,173	Down

[/b] -13,104 [/td][td] Down [/b] -9.69% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $5,000 - $9,999 [/td][td] 250,392 [/td][td] 220,357 [/td][td] Down [/b] -30,035 [/td][td] Down [/b] -12.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $10,000 - $14,999 [/td][td] 386,930 [/td][td] 333,662 [/td][td] Down [/b] -53,268 [/td][td] Down [/b] -13.77% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $15,000 - $19,999 [/td][td] 431,072 [/td][td] 351,261 [/td][td] Down [/b] -79,811 [/td][td] Down [/b] -18.51% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $20,000 - $24,999 [/td][td] 473,909 [/td][td] 345,811 [/td][td] Down [/b] -128,098 [/td][td] Down [/b] -27.03% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $25,000 - $29,999 [/td][td] 481,916 [/td][td] 353,000 [/td][td] Down [/b] -128,916 [/td][td] Down [/b] -26.75% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $30,000 - $34,999 [/td][td] 431,475 [/td][td] 370,730 [/td][td] Down [/b] -60,745 [/td][td] Down [/b] -14.08% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $35,000 - $39,999 [/td][td] 372,027 [/td][td] 362,379 [/td][td] Down [/b] -9,648 [/td][td] Down [/b] -2.59% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $40,000 - $44,999 [/td][td] 315,844 [/td][td] 331,557 [/td][td] Up [/b] 15,713 [/td][td] Up [/b] 4.97% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $45,000 - $49,999 [/td][td] 270,252 [/td][td] 294,672 [/td][td] Up [/b] 24,420 [/td][td] Up [/b] 9.04% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $50,000 - $54,999 [/td][td] 236,981 [/td][td] 261,487 [/td][td] Up [/b] 24,506 [/td][td] Up [/b] 10.34% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $55,000 - $59,999 [/td][td] 211,836 [/td][td] 226,916 [/td][td] Up [/b] 15,080 [/td][td] Up [/b] 7.12% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $60,000 - $64,999 [/td][td] 185,278 [/td][td] 201,772 [/td][td] Up [/b] 16,494 [/td][td] Up [/b] 8.90% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $65,000 - $74,999 [/td][td] 298,638 [/td][td] 352,399 [/td][td] Up [/b] 53,761 [/td][td] Up [/b] 18.00% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $75,000 - $99,999 [/td][td] 465,912 [/td][td] 617,915 [/td][td] Up [/b] 152,003 [/td][td] Up [/b] 32.62% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $100,000 - $149,999 [/td][td] 347,109 [/td][td] 559,366 [/td][td] Up [/b] 212,257 [/td][td] Up [/b] 61.15% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $150,000 - $199,999 [/td][td] 112,001 [/td][td] 207,000 [/td][td] Up [/b] 94,999 [/td][td] Up [/b] 84.82% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $200,000 - $499,999 [/td][td] 135,763 [/td][td] 233,146 [/td][td] Up [/b] 97,383 [/td][td] Up [/b] 71.73% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $500,000 - $999,999 [/td][td] 31,058 [/td][td] 54,391 [/td][td] Up [/b] 23,333 [/td][td] Up [/b] 75.13% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $1,000,000 - $4,999,999 [/td][td] 18,423 [/td][td] 36,384 [/td][td] Up [/b] 17,961 [/td][td] Up [/b] 97.49% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $5,000,000 - $9,999,999 [/td][td] 1,594 [/td][td] 3,601 [/td][td] Up [/b] 2,007 [/td][td] Up [/b] 125.91% [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] $10,000,000 and over [/td][td] 1,031 [/td][td] 2,761 [/td][td] Up [/b] 1,730 [/td][td] Up [/b] 167.80% [/td][/tr]

[/table]

It looks to me like the population of the wealthy has not only been going UP, but has been going up tremendously. How can that be if we are constantly being told the rich are leaving in droves? Well, think about who is telling us the rich are leaving in droves - the rich themselves via think tanks they finance like the Empire Center. Come to your own conclusions.

*Data courtesy of the NY State Department of Taxation and Finance. 2007 is the latest year data is available.
1999: www.tax.ny.gov/research/stats/stat_pit/personal_income_tax_returns/analysis_of_1999_personal_income_tax_returns.htm
2007: www.tax.ny.gov/research/stats/stat_pit/personal_income_tax_returns/analysis_of_2007_personal_income_tax_returns.htm

[uncivilservant]

Professional Devil's Advocate here - Can you adjust that data for inflation? Between 1999 and 2007, the CPI increased by 24%, so making 100K in 2007 was as good as 80K in 1999. (Bureau of Labor Statistics link: ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt ) What is the adjusted data set in 2007?

Oh, nevermind, the Tax and Finance data isn't granular enough to know who is close to the bondaries. But a 24% difference in the purchasing value of the dollar is not statistically insignificant. Depending upon the clustering of data points, the data could be very different after adjustment. I once described statistics as "Lying with numbers".

[Darth Stateworker]

Come on Uncivil - I know you are a conservative, but these numbers have to make you stop and think for a second.

Obviously DTF isn't adjusting for inflation. But take a look at the raw numbers - and the percentage the population in each group went up for those making $100k and above. That can't be explained away by inflation - no way, no how. The population more than doubled in the top two groups, practically doubled for the 3rd highest, and went up at least 70% for every group from $150k a year up. Inflation doesn't cause that.

To me, that is instead more representative of the "rich getting richer" phenomenon that most conservatives avoid discussing like the plague. In either case, it certainly doesn't support the conservative position that the rich are leaving NY in droves and our population of rich people has been going down.

Conversely, those at the lower echelons of annual income decreased, which tends to discredit the other stereotype that we are a welfare state that attracts the poor like honey - and even I am guilty of using that stereotype in the past. It looks like I'll have to hang that statement up in future conversations.

[donnah]

Like we really have to worry about the rich leaving New York City. Ever. Maybe if you could shut down Broadway and the Stock Exchange.